ON THE JARGONIUM FALLACY.

The “banzhaf Fallacy” Fallacy

On the nature of the conjunction fallacy

In a seminal work, Tversky and Kahneman showed that in some contexts people tend to believe that a conjunction of events (e.g., Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) is more likely to occur than one of the conjuncts (e.g., Linda is a bank teller). This belief violates the conjunction rule in probability theory. Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the "conjunctio...

survey on the rule of the due & hindering relying on the sheikh ansaris ideas

قاعده مقتضی و مانع در متون فقهی کم و بیش مستند احکام قرار گرفته و مورد مناقشه فقهاء و اصولیین می باشد و مشهور معتقند مقتضی و مانع، قاعده نیست بلکه یکی از مسائل ذیل استصحاب است لذا نگارنده بر آن شد تا پیرامون این قاعده پژوهش جامعی انجام دهد. به عقیده ما مقتضی دارای حیثیت مستقلی است و هر گاه می گوییم مقتضی احراز شد یعنی با ماهیت مستقل خودش محرز گشته و قطعا اقتضاء خود را خواهد داشت مانند نکاح که ...

On the reality of the conjunction fallacy.

Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We used betting paradigms and unambiguously ...

Predicting Lotto Numbers A natural experiment on the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand fallacy

We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that were draw...